Saturday, December 26, 2015
Marcomony in the Physical sciences
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Chain of evidence in historical science
Saturday, December 19, 2015
Does the evolutionary synthesis have primary utility?
Friday, December 18, 2015
Marconomic Analysis of Cometary Science
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Marconomic analysis of Geogenesis
Saturday, December 5, 2015
Marcomony as a track back to primary utility of a scientific idea
In a similar way, this currency is often sufficient in non-experimental sciences whose value is primarily in their utility for making predictions: nobody really wants to waste time looking for oil and gas deposits where they are not, and nobody wants less accurate weather forecasts.
However, the utility of mapping the real world more accurately is not the only utility inherent in an idea. Ideas also have value for their effect on the minds of men: their utility in supporting economic, social, or moral schemes. Here the value of ideas in the ‘marketplace of ideas’ will vary enormously, depending on who is buying and selling. An idea which has great moral value to a Muslim will be of much less value to an atheist, and a model which has great social utility to a libertarian may have no value to a statist. An idea which will be prized by an entrepreneur who can make a great deal of money of it will not have that value to an ivory tower academic.
This secondary utility coexists with the primary utility of an idea in the marketplace of ideas, and where the idea does not readily allow predictions to be made, or makes predictions of little practical value, this secondary utility will be dominant. This secondary utility runs rampant over the actual scientific value in the marketplace of ideas whenever the ideas are anything to do with the environment, anything to do with sex or race, anything where there is big money involved, and – frighteningly – even off in the depths of space with our friendly tweeting comet.
Now, what we need is not an unfettered market of ideas – because idea space is unthinkably vast, and is forever throwing up new monsters; nor a stern admonition that we should disregard secondary utility – because we badly need ideas with social, moral, and economic utility, even if we cannot agree on their market value; but some agreed-upon means to restrain the rampant dominance of secondary utility. There are three ways to do this that I can see, in order of importance:
These three rules of thumb are regulators of the self-interest that otherwise applies in the lawless market of ideas where secondary utility reigns. They provide some limits, however imprecise and inadequate, to the latitude of the human imagination to propose models that are congenial with their designs.
Thus, parsimony is a fairly arbitrary and subjective way to judge an idea via secondary utility. Self-consistency and other-consistency is a broad enough brush also, as usually, one can think of a myriad of ideas to explain the one phenomenon, that can be other-consistent and self-consistent. Consensus usually narrows this down to one or two alternatives. When there are two alternatives, this is a natural dichotomy which is usually the case where parsimony is explicitly invoked to pick one. The consensus path to narrowing down that far also implicitly uses parsimony, as humans are loath to have too many viable options like balls in the air when juggling.
Marcomony accepts that primary utility is too narrow a target to ignore secondary utility even in "science". However, the permanent setting of a bar (based on secondary utility) for an institution (science) that advertises itself as only dealing with repeatable observational evidence is entirely unsatisfactory. There needs to be a track back from narratives that have relied on parsimony for their secondary utility to look at alternative razors, that also satisfy consistency parameters 1 and 2. The track back is to compare alternative razors, perhaps a multitude, to see if primary utility is better served. A balance in the burden of proof between the incumbent razor and alternative razors is mandatory. No bar of proof is to be placed on the alternative that is not placed on the incumbent.
Friday, November 20, 2015
Example 1: Applying Marcomony to AGW
Step 1) Identify repeatable observations relevant to the paradigm. The observations that are repeatable involve primarily to look at other planets. Venus was found to have a runaway greenhouse effect as a scientifically tight argument that explains the far higher than predicted surface temperature of Venus. Applying that tight science to Earth and Mars gets a reasonable baseline for how the greenhouse effect has been relevant in Earth's and Mars' history, and how it may pan out in the future if greenhouse gases breach certain thresholds. Although this has identified how temperatures can be radically different on these planets, it is still an open question of degree of importance of closeness to the sun (among other factors) in comparison to greenhouse effects. Also, the same physics that is invoked to predict weather is extended into plausible climate predictions.
Step 2) Identify axioms specific to the day to day working of the science as it is practiced. One that I found was an implicit premise that the Anthropogenic "signal" that is the climactic effect attributable to human emissions can be empirically measured independently of transient weather effects and "noise" climactic effects. Another is that this signal is reversible only by the reversal of the causal anthropogenic emissions rather than compensatory deliberate human intervention that attacks the climactic signal directly. A third axiom is of the null hypothesis that neutral or nil human emissions would or could not result in civilisation threatening climate change either from other causes that would be no different with human activity, or that may have been mediated by human activity (eg. If global warming reduced the impact of a naturally occurring ice age)
Marcomony does not dwell on the reasonableness or otherwise of the identified axioms. The primary purpose of identifying them is to judge them on the ability of those axioms to be verified empirically, whether there is an implied shift in the burden of proof in their favour, and how much the whole paradigm relies on these axioms to come to scientific conclusions.
Step 3) Marconomic analysis of the axioms. 1st identified axiom: Whether a piece of data, such as global temperature average or one of the many other thermal energy measures employed can be empirically verified as an anthropogenic signal. Empirical verification can only really happen with predictions being fulfilled in the timescales of decades. This is clearly a work in progress. As far as the burden of proof goes, it has clearly shifted. Other signals, such as solar "signals" have a considerable bar to jump compared to the anthropogenic signal which, within Climate science peer and informal circles, is statutory in the sense that peer reviewed articles do not have to justify stating that there is an anthropogenic signal.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Marcomony is not Plenitude
From the encyclopedia of philosophy:
6.2 Principles of Plenitude
[I]f three things are not enough to verify an affirmative proposition about things, a fourth must be added, and so on (quoted in Maurer 1984, p. 464).
The variety of entities should not be rashly diminished (Kant 1950, p. 541).
Entium varietates non temere esse minuendas.
"Truth is as complex as it is - No amount of thought is going to make it simpler. Thought can only manage the complexity in a way which has meaning to us in a functional way"
Therefore, this statement is outright incorrect "The simplest answer is usually the correct one"
The following link demonstrates how easy it is to abuse parsimony.
Abuses of parsimony
Saturday, November 7, 2015
What Marcomony is Not
"One must unnecessarily multiply parameters when fewer will do" Marcomony does not imply this.
Nor "the most complex solution is usually the correct one"
Nor"Among competing hypotheses the one with the most assumptions should be chosen"
Nor "Entities must be multiplied beyond necessity "
Marcomony is to be purely viewed as a way to sort and prioritise scientific ideas in the "market for scientific ideas"
When there is a shift in the burden of proof, the barrier of entry for a scientific idea becomes unreasonably high, and all the benefits that accrue from "free trade" in scientific ideas is lost.
As in the real world of free trade, the premise that free trade brings in a multitude of undesirable, unethical or damaging goods and services in competition with incumbent ones is completely unfounded. For every seller of a good or service in a free market, there is a willing buyer. If the buyer is reasonably informed, free trade benefits everyone *As a very vital rule of thumb* Exceptions do not disprove this rule of thumb, so unlike in Physics, where reduction to universal laws that give precise and correct answers to scientific questions, sciences like economics context is everything. Thus, the vital science that is learnt from economics (and Marconomics) is highly context sensitive.
In the same way, a free trade in scientific ideas (by relaxing the tariffs of parsimony) will not result in an infinity of balmy ideas. Scientists have to still buy these ideas, so reducing barriers of entry will actually show balmy ideas for what they are, because they will be more exposed to scrutiny from informed buyers, rather than being peddled to the general naive public. A lot of these new scientific ideas will be context sensitive, and may be useful only until the context changes, but some brand new categories of science will be revealed that will change the world forever.
Question 1 to the reader: Does parsimony imply a shift in the burden of proof?
After a great deal of study of parsimony (and the related Ockhams Razor), I find the answer to question 1 to the reader to be unequivocally *YES*. If everyone could just believe me, this would make my book much shorter, and my attacks on the pointlessness of favouring parsimony much more convincing.
Broadly, however, I find there to be a complete denial that any such shifts in the burden of proof take place in all the facets of science where I have discovered the poisoned fruits of parsimony.
One early point of research that flagged parsimony as a bugbear rather than an asset to science was with the axiom of geogenesis in the study of abiogenesis. It appeared to me that there was considerably more evidence for exogenesis (as in the weak form of panspermia, where the Earth was seeded with single celled organisms from space with as yet unknown providence) than geogenesis.
In digging for the explanation as to why exogenesis had the burden of proof seemingly attached to it, while geogenesis seemingly does not, parsimony is my prime suspect.
Three questions to the reader:
1)Is parsimony explicitly or implicitly used in this case?
2)Has it shifted the burden of proof?
3)Does it matter?
The main defence I have heard is that even in the (unlikely) case that abiogenesis did not occur on Earth, it has to have occurred on a planet similar to the early Earth.
I have discussed this over and over as to how this defence is "science" in any shape or form. Eg. What observations lead to a calculation of probability, and how an unknown process can have a known locale, etc.
Towards the end of my formulation of the alternative of Marcomony (at least as a very precise scientific concept in my own mind), I went back to this early affront of parsimony being the reason panspermia is wholesale rejected, and realised that a whole new science can be born with the simplest of keys being the detection and rejection of parsimony wherever it is found.
Ironically, however, there is no perception of a problem, and radical adversaries (eg. Between panspermia advocates and the mainstream exobiology community) cling to parsimony in one form or another and are equally ignoring its "poisoned fruits" that I so readily calculate based on the removal of the burden of proof. Proponents of a pet theory are generally advocating that their own theory is the one that should have the burden of proof removed (perhaps by arguments that entail it having less parameters or more elegant solutions) rather than pushing for a level "proof-burden" playing field, which Marcomony advocates.
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Draft Foreword
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Marcomony for Dummies
Commentary by Andrew C. Cooper
Axiom X of Marconomic philosophy is incredibly simple and powerful, just rejecting parsimony, but parsimony is so entrenched in the sciences there is no way to change the science as it is done now, but a rebel parsimony free scientific establishment can run with the new paradigm in competition with the scientific establishment.